Resampling of ENSO teleconnections: accounting for cold-season evolution reduces uncertainty in the North Atlantic

Abstract. We re-examine the uncertainty of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection to North Atlantic following investigation Deser et al. (2017) (DES2017). Our analyses are performed on November–December (ND) and January–February (JF) means separately for a geographical area that covers larger extent in midlatitude than DES2017. The motivation splitting cold season this way arises from fact patterns underlying physical mechanisms different late fall compared midwinter. As DES2017, our main technique quantifying is bootstrap resampling. Amplitudes spatial correlations samples presented together effectively using Taylor diagrams. In addition confidence intervals calculated Student's t tests percentiles anomalous sea level pressure (SLP) values samples, we also investigate additional techniques not widely used climate research but have advantages. contrast interpretation by results indicate can (at 5 % significance level) teleconnected SLP anomalies. uncertainties amplitudes remain large, with upper-percentile anomalies at up 2 times those lower Pacific 2.8 Atlantic.